Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 200101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -29.10     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.0  56.0  56.3  61.5  61.9  58.4  60.8  65.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.9   8.7  -1.8  -2.7  -4.9  -7.8  -8.8 -10.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   149.0 133.0 143.0 114.0  93.0  30.0  61.0  63.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  60.0  56.0  56.3  61.5  61.9  58.4  60.8  65.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%