Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 200101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -30.60     61.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.7  58.0  62.1  62.1  59.2  62.9  64.8  66.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.4   0.3  -2.1  -3.9  -6.8  -8.3  -8.8 -10.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   134.0 144.0 114.0  92.0  28.0  61.0  62.0  29.0 VF VF  F  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  47.0  43.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  55.7  58.0  62.1  62.1  59.2  62.9  64.8  66.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%