Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062020 200106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  26.2  28.2  36.5  32.9  30.8  39.7  34.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  96.0 134.0 140.0 122.0  39.0  31.2  23.4  N  F VF VF  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  29.0  -8.0 -18.0  -2.0   7.0  27.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  67.0  70.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.1  26.2  28.2  36.5  32.9  30.8  39.7  34.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        6.6%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       36.4%       28.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       17.2%       13.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       17.2%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.8%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       33.4%       20.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       15.5%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%       11.4%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        3.8%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%