Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062020 200107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.7  19.9  22.3  25.1  29.0  29.1  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 113.6 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  45.0  16.0   0.0   0.0  17.0  43.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  20.7  19.9  22.3  25.1  29.0  29.1  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.7%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        3.5%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%        2.2%        5.8%