Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062020 200107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  19.1  21.9  26.9  27.7  30.9  33.9  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 111.5 101.6  89.3  83.0  83.0  86.1  89.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  10.0  12.0  16.0  35.0  42.0  32.0  24.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.1  19.1  21.9  26.9  27.7  30.9  33.9  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%