Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  32.5  29.5  28.8  30.6  33.8  30.4  32.9  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  130.0  85.0  61.0  52.0  63.0  58.0  58.0  50.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  27.0  37.0  28.0  29.0  26.0  18.0 -14.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.9  32.5  29.5  28.8  30.6  33.8  30.4  32.9  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        4.3%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.8%       23.9%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%        8.3%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        8.3%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.1%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       23.1%       14.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        8.8%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%        8.2%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        3.1%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%