Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  29.5  28.8  31.6  34.7  30.8  33.6  39.8  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  37.0  28.0  29.0  26.0  18.0 -14.0 -44.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  29.5  28.8  31.6  34.7  30.8  33.6  39.8  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        4.4%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       20.1%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       10.2%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       10.2%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        3.5%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       15.0%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        5.6%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%