Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200112 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  25.8  31.3  35.0  29.9  34.6  35.7  39.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  57.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  43.0  27.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  26.0  29.0  38.0  43.0  26.0 -16.0 -38.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.6  25.8  31.3  35.0  29.9  34.6  35.7  39.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%        8.8%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       27.7%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%       13.7%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.9%       13.7%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        7.6%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       19.1%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%        7.4%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        4.9%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%