Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  29.2  34.9  33.1  37.3  43.3  45.2  46.9  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  61.0  56.0  58.0  48.0  33.0  20.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  17.0  47.0  54.0  29.0   0.0 -35.0 -32.0  N  U  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.1  29.2  34.9  33.1  37.3  43.3  45.2  46.9  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        8.0%       10.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       25.5%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       13.3%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       13.3%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        7.2%        7.5%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       10.1%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        3.1%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%