Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200112 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  34.0  36.7  42.9  41.7  41.0  40.6  37.4  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  85.1  80.7  78.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  53.0  29.0   0.0 -35.0 -32.0 -16.0 -28.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.7  34.0  36.7  42.9  41.7  41.0  40.6  37.4  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.5%       12.8%       20.7%
 25kt / 24h       22.4%       25.3%       23.8%
 30kt / 24h       22.4%       20.0%       21.2%
 35kt / 24h       22.4%       20.0%       21.2%
 40kt / 24h       10.1%        8.9%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        5.9%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%