Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200113 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  36.4  39.2  43.4  39.3  38.8  31.4  26.9  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  41.0  26.0  17.0  14.0  12.0  14.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  82.3  75.7  73.6  65.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  17.0  -7.0 -23.0 -19.0 -36.0 -23.0 -29.5  N  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  58.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.2  36.4  39.2  43.4  39.3  38.8  31.4  26.9  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.4%       13.6%       29.5%
 25kt / 24h       22.7%       22.6%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       22.7%       15.9%       19.3%
 35kt / 24h       22.7%       15.9%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h       16.6%        9.2%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        4.4%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%