Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  36.5  37.2  37.2  30.8  24.0  21.1  15.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  66.5  56.6  53.0  49.4  46.0  38.0  26.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -29.0 -25.0 -47.0 -35.0 -49.0 -35.0 -15.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  36.5  37.2  37.2  30.8  24.0  21.1  15.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.6%        3.5%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        3.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        2.0%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        2.0%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%