Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200113 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  37.1  37.2  34.2  24.0  21.4  15.8  11.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.3  65.7  59.4  55.5  48.0  36.1  24.4  16.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -25.0 -47.0 -35.0 -49.0 -35.0 -15.0   4.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.6  37.1  37.2  34.2  24.0  21.4  15.8  11.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        2.5%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        3.2%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%