Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  20.3  22.9  20.8  18.3  21.3  22.1  31.3  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  70.0  61.7  57.9  57.9  55.5  53.2  50.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -12.0  -9.0  23.0  22.0  18.0  11.0   5.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  20.3  22.9  20.8  18.3  21.3  22.1  31.3  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%