Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.7  17.0  14.2  16.8  23.0  26.1  25.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.7  53.2  49.8  47.7  45.7  43.7  42.8  41.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  -3.0  14.0  20.0  29.0  19.0  10.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  46.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.9  23.7  17.0  14.2  16.8  23.0  26.1  25.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%