Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072020 200115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  17.3  16.4  23.4  29.3  29.8  31.1  35.2  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.2  53.8  51.7  50.7  48.7  46.8  46.8  46.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  25.0  39.0  26.0  24.0  22.0  19.0   6.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  38.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  17.3  16.4  23.4  29.3  29.8  31.1  35.2  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%