Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092020 200122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  32.0  35.4  46.2  49.3  49.2  47.1  58.1  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5  96.2  87.7  70.4  52.8  45.8  35.8  31.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  88.0 119.0 109.0  90.0  88.0 104.0  77.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  82.0  77.0  75.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.1  32.0  35.4  46.2  49.3  49.2  47.1  58.1  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%