Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102020 200125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00     58.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  21.0  28.4  34.8  43.4  45.1  53.3  52.2  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  17.0  15.0  26.0  35.0  24.0  11.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 106.5 108.6 122.0 124.3 110.7  96.6  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  37.0  51.0  54.0  78.0 100.0  82.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.4  21.0  28.4  34.8  43.4  45.1  53.3  52.2  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        4.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       14.6%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        5.4%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        5.4%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        8.8%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%