Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102020 200125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  43.0  50.2  54.0  55.2  48.3  51.4  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  19.0  29.0  17.0  11.0   9.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 117.0 114.6 105.7  97.4  91.6  88.0  82.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  41.0  65.0  48.0  12.0  20.0  32.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  43.0  50.2  54.0  55.2  48.3  51.4  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%