Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102020 200126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  49.3  54.0  51.8  53.0  52.1  55.4  55.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  11.0   5.0   1.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.6  83.0  77.7  74.3  68.0  60.8  55.4  51.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  64.0   1.0  -5.0  29.0  60.0  57.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.5  49.3  54.0  51.8  53.0  52.1  55.4  55.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%