Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112020 200125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.50     73.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  27.5  40.7  51.5  63.4  54.1  56.5  55.8  F  N VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  75.0  69.4  64.2  55.9  46.8  42.4  38.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 109.0 120.0 121.0 134.0 122.0  74.0  84.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  72.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  27.5  40.7  51.5  63.4  54.1  56.5  55.8  F  N VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%