Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122020 200126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.80    193.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  39.9  38.2  41.1  47.0  52.3  53.0  49.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   1.0   0.8   0.7   0.5   0.3   0.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  92.7  91.0  87.7  87.7  86.1  84.6  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  35.0  -2.0   2.0  -9.0   6.0  -8.0  -4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  48.0  45.0  40.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.6  39.9  38.2  41.1  47.0  52.3  53.0  49.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%