Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122020 200126 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40    193.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  40.0  47.0  49.1  48.5  45.8  50.4  56.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  96.1  94.6  94.6  91.5  90.0  88.6  85.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   2.0  -9.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  37.0  37.0  35.0  34.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.9  40.0  47.0  49.1  48.5  45.8  50.4  56.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%