Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192020 200223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  15.6  18.5  16.1   9.6   9.2  10.5  12.1  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  56.0  46.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  51.0  41.0  17.0  16.0  19.0  27.0  21.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.3  15.6  18.5  16.1   9.6   9.2  10.5  12.1  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%       14.6%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       31.2%       57.0%       44.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.2%       40.7%       28.5%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       40.7%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       20.3%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.8%       65.5%       44.7%
 55kt / 36h       16.0%       49.5%       32.7%
 55kt / 48h       33.4%       49.3%       41.4%
 70kt / 48h       13.9%       25.4%       19.6%
 65kt / 72h       20.1%       42.4%       31.2%