Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242020 200404 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80     76.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  54.5  59.6  55.6  56.1  60.2  56.9  67.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   6.0   4.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.4  36.0  34.3  39.4  28.0  15.4   8.2   2.7  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 102.0  41.0   9.0  28.0  19.0  44.0  57.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.1  54.5  59.6  55.6  56.1  60.2  56.9  67.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.9%        1.6%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        0.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        0.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        0.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%