Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242020 200404 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.50     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.8  58.2  55.7  54.0  57.8  56.0  63.9  64.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.2  34.4  32.7  20.0   7.9   0.9  -3.3  -7.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  41.0   9.0  28.0  19.0  44.0  57.0  45.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  53.8  58.2  55.7  54.0  57.8  56.0  63.9  64.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        0.6%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%