Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242020 200404 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     79.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.3  54.4  49.9  55.7  55.7  55.7  60.6  65.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.0  31.0  20.0   7.9  -0.2  -5.3  -8.2 -10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  24.0  23.0  18.0  32.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  47.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  60.3  54.4  49.9  55.7  55.7  55.7  60.6  65.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%