Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242020 200405 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.3  52.2  53.9  52.1  62.5  71.4  78.7  77.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.3  14.8  12.7   7.8   6.8  -3.1 -14.3 -20.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  40.0  65.0  54.0  55.0  36.0  40.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  49.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  55.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  53.3  52.2  53.9  52.1  62.5  71.4  78.7  77.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%