Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200403 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  32.0  37.0  36.5  39.2  40.4  37.7  37.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  34.0  56.0  42.0  70.0  83.0  68.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.7  32.0  37.0  36.5  39.2  40.4  37.7  37.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.6%       20.5%       27.6%
 25kt / 24h       42.4%       46.9%       44.7%
 30kt / 24h       31.0%       35.4%       33.2%
 35kt / 24h       31.0%       35.4%       33.2%
 40kt / 24h       13.0%       22.2%       17.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.2%       24.4%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%       10.1%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        9.8%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        2.6%        2.7%