Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200404 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    164.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.1  31.8  33.5  35.6  37.8  38.6  35.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  61.0  55.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  73.0  57.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.5  34.1  31.8  33.5  35.6  37.8  38.6  35.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.8%       20.4%       40.1%
 25kt / 24h       46.2%       37.3%       41.8%
 30kt / 24h       35.9%       30.1%       33.0%
 35kt / 24h       33.4%       30.1%       31.7%
 40kt / 24h       32.0%       19.0%       25.5%
 45kt / 36h       38.6%       14.9%       26.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%        6.3%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        3.3%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%