Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200404 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30    164.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  31.5  32.3  35.5  37.0  38.3  37.2  36.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  57.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.1  31.5  32.3  35.5  37.0  38.3  37.2  36.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.3%        9.4%       25.9%
 25kt / 24h       22.9%       14.3%       18.6%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%        8.5%       12.6%
 35kt / 24h       13.5%        8.5%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h       12.0%        3.8%        7.9%
 45kt / 36h       48.8%        6.4%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%