Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200404 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60    165.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.7  26.0  25.3  18.8  15.1  16.6  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  37.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  95.0  73.0  71.0  49.0  48.0  75.0  86.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  76.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.3  27.7  26.0  25.3  18.8  15.1  16.6  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.0%       11.4%       28.7%
 25kt / 24h       29.5%       19.2%       24.3%
 30kt / 24h       21.0%       13.1%       17.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.0%       13.1%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h       18.0%        5.7%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%