Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200404 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    165.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  27.7  28.4  26.5  26.9  30.7  31.3  32.3  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0 103.0 107.0 111.0  85.0  91.0  82.0  68.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.2  27.7  28.4  26.5  26.9  30.7  31.3  32.3  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        1.9%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        4.0%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        2.2%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%