Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200405 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    165.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  24.2  16.2  18.7  22.9  26.5  28.4  34.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  12.0  30.0  28.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.3  52.3  50.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  98.0  69.0  73.0  79.0  58.0  67.0  74.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.2  24.2  16.2  18.7  22.9  26.5  28.4  34.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%        6.9%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        3.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       24.6%        2.0%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%