Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200405 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    165.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  15.5  18.9  23.2  26.3  31.7  37.0  37.6  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  57.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  68.0  72.0  79.0  59.0  67.0  74.0  83.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.5  15.5  18.9  23.2  26.3  31.7  37.0  37.6  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        3.5%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       12.2%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        7.9%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        7.9%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        3.6%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%        3.2%       15.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%