Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200405 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    165.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  22.1  30.3  33.0  33.3  37.0  43.6  44.3  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  58.0  59.0  52.0  40.0  34.0  30.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  44.3  44.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  74.0  84.0  48.0  53.0  71.0  82.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  22.1  30.3  33.0  33.3  37.0  43.6  44.3  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.5%       12.1%       28.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.7%       12.6%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h       14.9%        8.0%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.6%        8.0%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%