Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200405 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    166.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  29.5  29.4  33.0  36.9  39.0  47.1  46.3  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  84.0  48.0  53.0  71.0  82.0  60.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.8  29.5  29.4  33.0  36.9  39.0  47.1  46.3  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.5%        5.6%       15.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%        5.3%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        1.5%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%