Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200406 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50    166.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.0  25.0  30.2  34.8  37.1  33.3  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  47.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  41.0  32.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  44.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  55.0  63.0  79.0 101.0  81.0  57.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  26.0  25.0  30.2  34.8  37.1  33.3  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        1.7%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        3.4%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%