Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200406 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    169.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  32.2  33.9  33.0  33.8  35.8  32.7  34.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.3  30.0  30.0  29.3  24.6  15.7   5.5  -0.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  63.0  54.0  56.0  86.0  94.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.5  32.2  33.9  33.0  33.8  35.8  32.7  34.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%