Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252020 200407 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    171.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  41.3  41.2  39.7  34.6  32.1  32.1  34.3 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  32.0  34.0  29.0  27.0  22.0  25.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  49.3  47.0  35.7  23.5  19.8  16.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  68.0  61.0  84.0  98.0 100.0  83.0  77.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.5  41.3  41.2  39.7  34.6  32.1  32.1  34.3 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%