Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262020 200415 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  38.9  42.0  47.9  50.3  52.9  53.9  46.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  12.0  17.0  21.0  27.0  31.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.5 100.5 100.5  98.5  96.6  98.5 102.4 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  63.0  42.0  34.0  41.0  -2.0   8.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.7  38.9  42.0  47.9  50.3  52.9  53.9  46.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%