Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262020 200415 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  45.0  51.0  53.1  52.6  51.7  49.4  48.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        102.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 106.5 108.6 112.9 112.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  42.0  34.0  41.0  -2.0   7.0  23.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.3  45.0  51.0  53.1  52.6  51.7  49.4  48.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%