Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262020 200415 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  37.9  40.2  44.3  48.7  48.6  46.6  46.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  19.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  24.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 106.5 106.5 110.7 112.9 112.9 115.1 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  28.0  31.0 -16.0 -11.0  14.0  10.0  -5.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  37.9  40.2  44.3  48.7  48.6  46.6  46.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%