Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262020 200415 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     83.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  40.8  44.3  50.7  49.0  48.5  46.0  48.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         98.0  99.8 101.6 101.6 103.5 105.5 107.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  31.0 -15.0 -11.0  14.0  10.0  -5.0  -8.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.7  40.8  44.3  50.7  49.0  48.5  46.0  48.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%