Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262020 200416 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     82.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.8  50.6  49.7  49.5  47.8  54.8  57.2  58.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  21.0  20.0  21.0  22.0  30.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        104.8 106.6 108.5 108.5 110.5 110.5 112.4 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0 -12.0 -20.0  15.0  13.0 -14.0  -8.0   7.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  37.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  47.8  50.6  49.7  49.5  47.8  54.8  57.2  58.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%