Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272020 200521 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.10     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.3  24.4  22.3  26.1  25.1  32.6  35.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 127.0 124.6 113.6 109.4 103.5  94.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0 118.0 121.0 126.0 108.0 101.0  91.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  55.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.6  29.3  24.4  22.3  26.1  25.1  32.6  35.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        8.2%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        0.9%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        7.5%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        1.6%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%