Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272020 200521 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  21.7  23.8  22.0  23.0  32.4  33.2  43.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  36.0  38.0  26.0  18.0  16.0  14.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 127.0 129.3 120.1 107.4 105.5  91.0  86.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  44.0  -8.0  10.0  17.0  47.0  40.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.9  21.7  23.8  22.0  23.0  32.4  33.2  43.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        9.3%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.5%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%