Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272020 200522 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.80     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  16.3  18.7  22.9  35.0  47.5  60.0  72.4  N  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 120.1 109.4 105.5  91.0  89.3  75.8  77.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   1.0   3.0  38.0  59.0 105.0  87.0  63.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.7  16.3  18.7  22.9  35.0  47.5  60.0  72.4  N  F  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%