Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272020 200522 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  24.7  29.4  38.1  42.1  52.1  74.9  89.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  13.0  10.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 107.4 101.6  89.3  89.3  80.0  77.2  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  15.0  35.0  50.0  99.0  85.0  98.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.1  24.7  29.4  38.1  42.1  52.1  74.9  89.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%