Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200512 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.7  11.3  13.9  15.5  15.2  14.9  11.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  61.0  65.0  47.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  21.0  24.0  12.0  27.0  15.0  26.0  36.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.9  12.7  11.3  13.9  15.5  15.2  14.9  11.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        5.0%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       39.0%       26.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       20.1%       13.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       20.1%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        8.2%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       49.4%       32.3%
 55kt / 36h       10.5%       28.8%       19.7%
 55kt / 48h       33.4%       37.5%       35.5%
 70kt / 48h       19.3%       17.6%       18.5%
 65kt / 72h       44.5%       44.6%       44.6%